We are in the hurricane season and in fact before it started we had a couple so maybe we should batten down the hatches!
The 2021 hurricane season is likely to produce a few more storms than originally predicted, the lead climate forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in an update Wednesday. The agency now forecasts 15 to 21 named storms, compared to the 13 to 20 it predicted at the beginning of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season. There is also 15% chance that the tally could be even higher, forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said. As for hurricanes, the earlier report foresaw six to 10, with three to five becoming major Category 3 storms or worse. The revised forecast is seven to 10 hurricanes, and three to five still major. “A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Niña in the months ahead,” Rosencrans said.
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ILLUSTRATION FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
La Nina refers to cooler waters in the Pacific and that does effect what weather we have here on the gulf.
La Niña refers to cooler than average surface water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which can result in reduced wind shear over the portions of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea where Atlantic tropical storms form. Cooler Pacific water temperatures are expected to emerge in September and October, which could again foretell an increase in storms late in the hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are now about 0.1% cooler than recent historical averages, whereas during the record 2020 season they were somewhat warmer than average. But this comes amid a continuing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which began in 1995 and has favored more active hurricane seasons since then.
The 2020 season ended up with so many storm that Greek letters were used. We saw back to back hurricanes here and Lake Charles is still recovering.
The 2020 season saw a record high 30 hurricanes, including five that made landfall in Louisiana, and resulted in several storm named with Greek letters after the English alphabet list was exhausted. This year, if the storms outrun the active list of 21 names, a list of alternate names selected by the World Meteorological Organization will be used. This year has already seen five named storms, including one hurricane, but none in recent weeks. The July pause in storm formation was partly the result of dry air moving west off Africa across the storm formation area. That air delivered Saharan dust as far west as the Gulf Coast.
ILLUSTRATION FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
The future storms will be worse.
Tropical storms and hurricanes that do form during the remainder of the season will likely be more intense as a result of global warming effects, which has increased the power of individual storms in recent years. Wind speeds are averaging about 10% higher, there is more rain and more storms are reaching Category 4 and 5 strength. Rosencrans warned that increased rates of sea level rise along U.S. coastlines, another result of global warming, also will increase the threat of storm surge. “Now is the time for families and communities to ensure their preparations are in place,” said National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini. “These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.”
Hot and in the 90’s now and a forecast of rain off and on but there is someting forming in the lower gulf now. We can only sit and wait and make preparations.