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Will the frogs like it? Those who might flood will not.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico could drop up to eight inches of rain in parts of southeast Louisiana this week, with the heaviest downpours expected Tuesday afternoon and night, forecasters said. It’s also expected to dump rain on Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle, regardless of development. The Gulf disturbance has a 30% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression this week, the National Hurricane Center said Monday afternoon.┬áIf the system strengthens into a tropical storm, the next available name is Danielle. “There’s at least some threat of this trough (of low pressure) slowly acquiring tropical characteristics later in the week as it sits over an abundance of warm water,” Slidell forecasters said in a Monday discussion message. “Regardless of whether it does acquire tropical characteristics, rain and thunderstorms are going to be a problem for much of the week, especially across the southeast half of our area.” Rainfall rates could be more than two inches per hour, and while forecasters said they didn’t expect widespread flooding through Tuesday night, that could change by Wednesday due to repeat rounds of heavy rain, which could result in a flood watch for some parts of the region.

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The shaded area on the graphic is where a storm could develop and is not a track. The National Hurricane Center releases a track when a tropical depression forms or is about to form.
image via National Hurricane Center.

South of us is expected to get the most rain.

The highest rainfall is expected along the coast south of New Orleans, according to Phil Grigsby, the lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Slidell. Rain totals by Sunday could reach eight inches in places like Boothville. Generally, two to six inches of rain are expected through Sunday south of the I-10/I-12 corridor, but Grigsby said there’s “a lot of uncertainty” with the estimates because the system could shift and change where the rain falls. Current rainfall estimates from the National Weather Service through Sunday are: Boothville – 6 to 8 inches, Houma 4 to 6 inches, New Orleans – 3 to 4 inches, Covington – 2 to 3 inches, Baton Rouge – 1.5 to 2 inches and Lafayette – 1.5 to 2 inches. The rain is expected to be heaviest Tuesday afternoon and night, forecasters said. Street flooding will be possible, Grigsby said. Additional rain, possibly heavy, could fall Wednesday, leading to further flooding if the rain falls in the same area. The rounds of rain will have a cumulative effect, forecasters said, and most rain will convert to runoff. Rain chances stick around daily through Sunday.

Heavy rainfall is expected in south Louisiana from a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. These are the estimates as of 3 a.m. Monday, July 11, 2022.
(image via National Weather Service in Slidell)

It is offshore the Florida Panhandle now.

As of 1 p.m. Monday, forecasters said a low pressure system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf just offshore of the Florida panhandle. As of 1 p.m. Monday, forecasters said a low pressure system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf just offshore of the Florida panhandle. The categories, in order of increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane (categories 1 through 5). No other systems are expected to develop within 48 hours in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean or Atlantic, forecasters said. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Gulf disturbance is seen on satellite as of 1 p.m. Monday, July 11, 2022.
(image via NOAA)

Our first taste of this season.

Potential for heavy rain from Tropical Disturbance